Peak Oil...Again...Really?

Peak oil alarmists have been at it for a long time and they have been wrong every single time. The old doomers (peak oil advocates) have since merged with the new doomers (global warming theorists) in an uncomfortable eco alliance. I'll explain below.

A new report in the Independent claims, yet again, we are heading to catastrophe sooner than we thought.

The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production...warned Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA).

... the IEA concluded that the global energy system was at a crossroads and that consumption of oil was "patently unsustainable", with expected demand far outstripping supply.

Oil production has already peaked in non-Opec countries and the era of cheap oil has come to an end, it warned.

Compare that with the (now) famous comments from Jimmy Carter in 1977:

Unless profound changes are made to lower oil consumption, we now believe that early in the 1980s the world will be demanding more oil that it can produce ... Each new inventory of world oil reserves has been more disturbing than the last. World oil production can probably keep going up for another six or eight years. But some time in the 1980s it can't go up much more. Demand will overtake production. We have no choice about that.

More importantly, if the peak oil doomers are right then our carbon based economy has a built in expiration date that doesn't require a cap/tax system.

Here is the Hubbert "peak oil" curve.




There are Hubbert-ian (more here at Wiki) peak curves for all fossil fuels with a consistent theme...we will be running down the back side of the curve starting in 2020 - at the latest. Which is coincidentally, the timeframe where the draconian carbon caps are scheduled to kick in.

The obvious conclusion is that natural and market forces will do all the heavy lifting promised in cap and tax - and in a similar timeframe. So if the old doomers are right, the carbon economy is resource limited and we will be forced to come up with a non-carbon alternative. If the new doomers are right, cap/tax will become a conservation program that will prolong our carbon economy by decades.

We need a new curve, let's call it the Gore Curve, to quantify how wrong both of these groups have been - and will continue to be.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory Satellite: NASA, We Have A Problem

It was really a good idea. Get accurate data on green house gasses and spend a little quality time with "science" (as opposed to the usual hysterical fear mongering).

The OCO, orbiting carbon observatory, was set to start working this month, but the satellite shit the bed soon after liftoff. See NASA's explanation here.

Why do I have a feeling that Al Gore and Mark Serreze are secretly happy that this thing went bad? If the science debate is over (Al Gore) and we are in the "death spiral" (Mark Serreze), the new data would only be a distraction. Because they really like the current GHG-global warming hypothesis, and without a platform like the OCO we are back to having science standing on it's head trying to disprove an unproven hypothesis.

Leap of Logic Science: The Green Scare Continues

Here's a gem from ABC News.


Plasma, LCDs blamed for accelerating global warming

What! My TV is killing the environment!

A gas used in the making of flat screen televisions, nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), is being blamed for damaging the atmosphere and accelerating global warming.

Almost half of the televisions sold around the globe so far this year have been plasma or LCD TVs.

But this boom could be coming at a huge environmental cost.

The gas, widely used in the manufacture of flat screen TVs, is estimated to be 17,000times as powerful as carbon dioxide.

Ironically, NF3 is not covered by the Kyoto protocol as it was only produced in tiny amounts when the treaty was signed in 1997.

This is terrible. Call Harry Reid...TV's ARE MAKING US SICK!!!!!

Check that. Here's the little "sciencey" bit.

Levels of this gas in the atmosphere have not been measured, but scientists say it is a concern..

Huh? We have never measured the gas? But the headline. The headline was big, and in bold type...

PLASMA, LCD'S BLAMED FOR ACCELERATING GLOBAL WARMING

Now I'm no expert in journalism, but I am an environmental scientist and this looks like the latest installment of the Green Scare from our leftist press.